Graded against
reality.

SpaceX will build a 1-mile test track for Hyperloop competition pods and open it to university teams.

SpaceX built the Hyperloop test track in Hawthorne and hosted several Pod Competition rounds in 2016-2019.

I'll release the Hyperloop design as an open-source concept. If someone can build it, I hope they do.

The Hyperloop Alpha paper was published August 2013 as promised. Multiple companies (Virgin Hyperloop, Hyperloop One) pursued the concept, though none have built commercial lines.

Tesla will launch unsupervised FSD in Texas and California later this year.

Tesla launched limited paid robotaxi rides in Austin and San Francisco in June 2025, after the year-end deadline.

Buying Twitter is an accelerant to creating X, the everything app. We can do banking, video, payments — it's WeChat for the West.

X launched payments features and expanded media but remains primarily a social platform as of 2025. Full 'everything app' functionality not achieved.

Tesla Megapack will be deployed at gigawatt-hour scale globally within 5 years, stabilizing grids worldwide.

Tesla Energy revenue grew significantly and multi-GWh Megapack projects have been deployed in Australia, California, and elsewhere. Global scale is growing but 'worldwide grid stabilization' is still limited.

Solar Roof will be cheaper than a regular roof when you account for the cost of electricity.

Solar Roof production ramped slowly. By 2021-2022 Tesla faced criticism for high prices and installation delays. Long-term economics depend heavily on electricity prices.

Within 10 years, solar plus stationary storage will be cheaper than any fossil fuel energy in all markets.

Solar LCOE has become the cheapest electricity source in most markets. Battery storage costs have also dropped dramatically, though full parity on all grids remains in progress.

Cybertruck production will ramp to 250,000 units per year.

Tesla produced approximately 38,965 Cybertrucks in 2024, far short of the 250K target.

We will produce more than one million Optimus robots per year by 2025.

Optimus remained in very limited production testing in 2025. Mass production has not been achieved.

Tesla will launch a purpose-built robotaxi — the Cybercab — in 2024.

The Cybercab was unveiled at the 'We, Robot' event in October 2024 but deliveries were not promised until 2026.

I expect Twitter revenue to double within a year.

Twitter/X revenue fell significantly in 2023 due to the advertiser boycott and reduced subscription uptake.

I believe FSD will be safer than the average human driver this year.

NHTSA opened a formal investigation into Tesla Autopilot crashes in 2022. Statistical safety parity not established.

Neuralink will have its first human implant within 6 months.

First human implant occurred in January 2024, roughly 2 years later.

FSD will be feature-complete and in wide release by end of 2021.

FSD beta expanded but remained supervised through 2021. Regulatory approval not obtained.

Starship will reach orbit in 2022.

First integrated Starship launch attempt happened April 2023; orbit was not reached until IFT-4 reentry in June 2024.

We hope to start human trials within approximately a year, pending FDA approval.

FDA initially rejected the application. Approval came in May 2023, first implant January 2024.

I think Tesla will have FSD — meaning truly no driver intervention required — basically done this year.

FSD remained supervised beta through 2020 and well into 2024.

Starship will attempt an orbital flight this year.

Only high-altitude Starship prototype tests occurred in 2021. Orbital stack not ready.

Cybertruck will be in production by late 2021.

Cybertruck deliveries didn't begin until November 30, 2023 — two full years late.

We hope to have the first human Neuralink implant within a year.

FDA approval for human trials came in May 2023. First implant occurred January 2024.

A million robotaxis on the road by end of 2020.

Full Self-Driving (Supervised) remained in beta in 2020. No robotaxi fleet was deployed.

I'm confident Tesla will have feature-complete FSD this year — meaning the car will be able to drive itself from home to work with no interventions.

FSD v12 in 2024 moved to end-to-end neural nets; full unsupervised capability not achieved by 2020.

The Boring Company will be operating tunnels in dozens of cities within 5 years.

As of 2024, only the Las Vegas Loop is operational. Multiple city projects have stalled.

The Boring Company will build a high-speed loop from downtown Chicago to O'Hare in under 12 minutes.

The Chicago project was cancelled after Richard Daley's tenure ended. No tunnel was built.

We will be producing 10,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of 2018.

Tesla peaked around 7,000 vehicles per week across all models by end of 2018. The 10K target was not hit.

The new Tesla Roadster will go into production in 2020.

As of 2025, the new Tesla Roadster has not entered production. Date has been pushed repeatedly.

We want to send the first cargo Starships to Mars in 2022 and the first crewed flights in 2024.

Starship had its first integrated test flight in April 2023. Mars cargo missions have not been attempted.

We will produce 5,000 Model 3 vehicles per week by the end of 2017.

Tesla produced only 793 Model 3s in Q3 2017 and under 3,000/week by year-end. Hit 5K/week in June 2018.

I think we'll be able to do full autonomy — meaning the car can go anywhere without any driver intervention — in about two years.

FSD remained in beta/supervised mode well past 2019.

We'll have a fully operational tunnel under LA within the next year or two.

The Hawthorne test tunnel opened December 2018 for media but was not publicly operational.

We want to send Dragon to Mars in 2018. And then 2020. And then 2022. And every two years after that, synchronizing with Mars orbital windows.

No Mars missions were launched in 2018 or 2020. Starship development replaced the Dragon Mars plan.

We should have full self-driving capability in approximately five to six years.

Full self-driving remained supervised beta by 2020. No level 4/5 autonomy achieved.

Grok will be the most capable AI in the world within a year.

By 2025, AI will probably be smarter than all humans combined.

We may have AI smarter than any single human next year — by 2025.

Several frontier models (GPT-4o, Claude 3.5+, Grok-3) surpass average humans on many tests but general AGI remains contested.

SpaceX will put humans on Mars before 2030.

Subscriptions will become the primary revenue source for X, replacing advertising dependence.

Tesla will produce 20 million vehicles per year by 2030.

Tesla produced approximately 1.85M vehicles in 2024. 20M by 2030 would require roughly 10x growth.

SpaceX's Starship is selected as the Human Landing System for NASA's Artemis program and will put astronauts on the Moon.

NASA selected SpaceX's Starship as the Artemis HLS in April 2021. Artemis III crewed Moon landing is now targeted for 2026.

We believe Neuralink can restore full body motion to those with severed spinal cords within a decade.

Humans will land on Mars as early as 2026.

I think we need roughly a million people to make Mars self-sustaining. That's the threshold for true independence from Earth.

Starship will be reusable for at least 1,000 flights with minimal refurbishment.

Eventually the cost per kilogram to orbit will be less than $100, possibly approaching $10.

Eventually, Neuralink could allow you to save and replay memories. Not in 5 years, but it's something we could do.

SpaceX will support a permanent base on the Moon by 2028.

We want a self-sustaining civilization on Mars within 40 to 100 years — by around 2050 or 2060 at the latest.